As usual (2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, etc), let's start the year by listing three things I'm hoping for and three things I worry may happen.
Let's start with the potential good news. Here are the three things that plausibly could happen in 2024.
Libertarian policy in Argentina - Electing a genuine libertarian in a very statist country was miraculous. But that was the easy part. He can do some pro-market reforms using executive authority, but the biggest reforms will require assent from the legislature. Can he convince those politicians to implement his very good agenda? Will the special interest lobbies mount successful protests? I hope the answers to those two questions are yes and no.
Defeat of anti-school choice Republicans in Texas and Georgia - We have seen many states enact school choice the past few years, but Texas and Georgia did not join the club because some Republican politicians sided with teacher unions rather than students. That also happened a few years ago in Iowa, but Governor Kim Reynolds helped newcomers challenge - and defeat - many of those reprehensible hacks. And then school choice was approved in the Hawkeye State. I'm hoping Governor Abbott in Texas and Government Kemp in Georgia are able to do something similar, thus paving the way to expand the map of states with school choice.
Supreme Court overturns the Chevron Doctrine - Some people fret about the "deep state," but practically speaking they should be concerned about the "administrative state." The good news is that the Supreme Court may rule that bureaucrats don't have leeway to impose more red tape in the absence of a clear legislative mandate.
One final note: Last year, I expressed hop that the Supreme Court would overturn the disgusting policy of civil asset forfeiture. That may still happen, though one year later than I hoped.
Now let's contemplate potential bad outcomes. Here are the three things I fear will happen this year.
A Biden-Trump rematch - America's biggest economic problem is entitlement spending and Biden and Trump both say they want to keep the status quo (Biden actually wants to make it worse). That's a recipe for giant future tax increases on lower-income and middle-class households. So you can easily understand why I'm not excited by the prospect of two big-government politicians competing to see who can lead America into fiscal crisis.
A debt commission rather than a spending commission - Speaking of fiscal crisis, I'm increasingly worried that misguided and gullible Republicans will give their support to a debt commission, which will be a stalking horse for big tax increases. There's nothing wrong with having a commission, but 100 percent-plus of America's fiscal problem is excessive spending and any potential budget commission or budget deal should be entirely focused on restraining the growth of government.
Carbon protectionism in rich nations - Imposing higher taxes on imports from developing nations, based on energy use, is a very bad idea. Sadly, the European Union is moving forward with this scheme to undermine global trade, using global warming as an excuse. To make matters worse, there is growing interest in the United States. This is most unfortunate. I don't think rich nations have an obligation to give foreign aid to poor nations (especially since that approach backfires), but I also think rich nation shouldn't adopt big-government policies that hurt poor nations.
One final note: Last year, one of my fears was an Italian fiscal crisis. I'm still afraid that will happen.
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