We are being told that we don't have to worry about an H5N1 pandemic now, but maybe in the future. This is portrayed as something that is out of anyone's hands, just something that may occur like a hurricane or a tornado. This is yet another lie. Consider.
The current evidence suggests that there was single spillover event from birds to cows in one farm in Texas. What would have happened if the USDA, OSHA and the CDC had cooperated early in the cow H5N1 epidemic to stop movement of cows out of Texas? What if every cow in the Texas panhandle and adjacent areas had been tested and affected animals culled? What if every farm worker had been tested, isolated and treated with antivirals? Would the dairy industry be facing an existential crisis? No. It would be fine. Would we be worried about H5N1 in cows causing a human pandemic? We would not. But because federal and State agencies did NOT do their jobs, we are looking a huge economic cost (for sure) and a possible huge cost in human lives. We should not obscure this fact with false analogies.
We are told that we are ready for a pandemic because we have known about H5N1 for a long time. We have antivirals. We have vaccines. Go back to sleep. However, if you want to live it might be better to wake up. How many people can we treat with antivirals? What is our supply? Did you know that antiviral resistance often occurs with flu viruses? H5N1 may start out being susceptible to antivirals but may quickly develop resistance especially if antivirals are widely used. How many vaccines do we have? A handful. How long before we have enough for every American? Six months would be wildly optimistic. What will do in the meantime? Shelter-in-place? Wear N95s? Please. Public health authorities have lost most of their credibility in the last pandemic by lying so frequently. Thanks Dr. Fauci. And now they are lying again. Most people won't take an H5N1 pandemic seriously, because they have been told not to, until they know someone who died. Then, they really will "panic", because they will be afraid and not know who to trust. Will essential workers show up? Will truckers risk their lives bring food to the cities? Maybe not.
We can't stop viruses from changing and becoming more dangerous any more than we can stop hurricanes or tornadoes from forming. But what we can do is give accurate warnings and plan realistic mitigation measures. We do that pretty well with hurricanes and tornadoes. Killer viruses, not so much.
A whole-of-government approach to pandemic prevention means that we do not accept barriers to testing of animals or people. If we have to, we play hardball. Don't want to let the CDC in to your dairy operation? Fine. Say hello to the worst SOB OSHA inspector you've ever met. Also, here comes an ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) raid. Cooperate and you get a nice government check to compensate you for your loss of animals. Don't cooperate and maybe your big Ag operation goes belly up. Shut the spread of H5N1 among cows down now. Explain to the dairy industry that this is big deal and that it is in their interest to cooperate and take some pain now versus tanking their entire industry for decades (Cow flu killed my family! How long will it take to erase that memory?). The longer this goes on, the worse the pain will be.
What do our stockpiles of N95s and antivirals look like? Do we have enough for everyone who works in a hospital and essential workers? If not, get this going now. Don't wait. Just how are we going to make vaccine for H5N1? With chicken eggs, cell culture or mRNA? Only the latter has any chance of producing enough quickly enough to make a difference. It's also the only way to have chance to keep up with changes in the virus. We should know this by now. And please. Stop lying to people. Let them know H5N1 is a serious virus, likely far worse than SARS-CoV-2. Start thinking about a good public relations campaign to get people to cooperate. For God's sake, don't hire the same people who did such a lousy job in the last pandemic.
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