Note: This briefer was drafted prior to the June 2024 Presidential Election in Mexico. The views expressed are the author's own and not necessarily those of the U.S. Government
Executive Summary
In recent years, Mexico's outgoing President, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO), has sought to develop lithium resources in the state of Sonora. AMLO and many Mexican policymakers hope to leverage lithium to profit from the rapidly growing value chain of clean energy minerals and technology. Lithium-ion batteries, electric vehicles, and other clean energy technologies are attracting skyrocketing sums of capital. Global clean energy investment surpassed investment for fossil fuels in 2016 and by 2023, clean energy investment exceeded that for fossil fuels by over half a trillion dollars.1 This precipitous increase means that Mexico's lithium reserves may become a crucial asset. However, to harness this resource responsibly, the nation must navigate the delicate balance between economic development and ecological security concerns.
Monetizing this resource is more complex than some Mexican policymakers would hope. Three issues should give Mexican policymakers pause. First, unregulated lithium mining can threaten local ecosystems through pollution and water loss. Second, drug cartels have a track record of co-opting other natural resources in Mexico to diversify their revenue streams. Thus, the potential wealth of lithium production could create security risks for Sonoran residents or workers operating lithium mines. Third, it will take a long time to produce lithium at commercial scale. There are significant economic risks that mining projects could fail to become cost-competitive. If Mexico and Sonoran residents face some ecological damage as a cost of lithium extraction, they should at least have a clear path to shared economic benefits. With a consequential Presidential Election in 2024, now is the time for Mexican political leaders to carefully analyze their options regarding lithium mining and ensure minimal damage to ecological security.
In this context, political leaders in Mexico and community leaders in Sonora should consider the following recommendations:
- Bring Lithium to the Public Square: A new president will be elected in June 2024. Both candidates should develop specific proposals for lithium development as part of a broader clean energy strategy and debate them.
- A Whole-of-Government Approach to Cartels: Cartel influence, violence, and corruption are transnational problems that Mexican leaders will still wrestle with in 2040. Stakeholders in Sonora's lithium endowment must consider steps to thwart cartel efforts to profit from this critical mineral.
- Shared Benefits and Continual Stakeholder Consultation: Any future mining should adhere to international conventions for Free, Prior, and Informed Consent (FPIC). Given the poor track record of mining companies in the region, Federal authorities should establish and maintain a monitoring system to analyze water quality and quantity in the local watershed.
No comments:
Post a Comment